World Cup 2026 · Outrights

50,000-sim full-tournament Monte-Carlo · Elo + Poisson · updated 06 Aug 2026, 07:00
Model & bets Ranking Winner Bracket Results

Model's call most likely champion & finalists

Model champion
Spain
100% likely
Most likely finalist
Spain
100% likely
… and finalist
Argentina
100% likely

Title odds probability of reaching each round, sorted by P(win)

#TeamP(win)FinalSFQFR16
1Spaingrp G · 2322
100.0%		100%100%100%100%
2Czech Republicgrp A · 1751
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3Mexicogrp A · 2003
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%100%
4South Africagrp A · 1690
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5South Koreagrp A · 1837
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Bosnia and Herzegovinagrp B · 1678
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Canadagrp B · 1836
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%100%
8Qatargrp B · 1539
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Switzerlandgrp B · 2000
0.0%		0.0%0.0%100%100%
10Australiagrp C · 1902
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Paraguaygrp C · 1895
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%100%
12Turkeygrp C · 1917
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13United Statesgrp C · 1833
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%100%
14Brazilgrp D · 2071
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%100%
15Haitigrp D · 1660
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Moroccogrp D · 2024
0.0%		0.0%0.0%100%100%
17Scotlandgrp D · 1816
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18Curaçaogrp E · 1595
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
19Ecuadorgrp E · 1957
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
20Germanygrp E · 1984
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
21Ivory Coastgrp E · 1841
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
22Japangrp F · 1968
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
23Netherlandsgrp F · 2041
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
24Swedengrp F · 1797
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
25Tunisiagrp F · 1661
0.0%		0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
50,000-sim Elo-anchored Poisson Monte-Carlo of the whole tournament (group stage + knockouts, draws burned to break knockout ties), à la Goldman Sachs.
Outright market unavailable, so model-vs-market edge is hidden.